Comprehensive Macro Economic Indicators

The macro economic indicators tool provides institutional-grade economic analysis across 9 comprehensive categories, supporting informed investment decision-making with 47+ economic indicators.

Overview

Macro economic indicators are critical for understanding the broader economic environment that impacts all investments. This tool provides comprehensive coverage of economic data from labor markets to global indicators, with intelligent fallbacks from FRED to yfinance when primary data sources are unavailable.

Key Features

47+ Economic Indicators across 9 categories
Smart Data Fallbacks: FRED primary → yfinance secondary
Automated Interpretation: Economic condition analysis and signals
Comprehensive Coverage: Institutional-grade economic data
Real-time Updates: Latest available economic releases

Economic Categories

1. Interest Rates & Yield Curve 📈

Analyzes the term structure of interest rates and yield curve dynamics.

Indicators:

Treasury yields: 10Y (DGS10), 2Y (DGS2), 3M (DGS3MO)
Real yields: 10Y Real (DFII10)
Inflation expectations: 10Y Breakeven (T10YIE)
Yield spreads: 10Y-2Y (T10Y2Y), 10Y-3M (T10Y3M)

Interpretation:

Yield Curve Inversions: 10Y-2Y spread < 0 signals recession risk
Trend Analysis: Rising/falling/stable rate environments
Duration Pressure: Market expectations of future rate changes

Example Output:

{
  "available": true,
  "source": "fred",
  "interpretation": {
    "10y2y_spread_current": 0.7,
    "yield_curve_inverted": false,
    "recession_risk": "low",
    "yield_curve_signal": "flattening"
  }
}

2. Credit Spreads & Risk Premiums 💰

Measures credit market conditions and risk appetite.

Indicators:

High-yield spreads: HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Investment grade spreads: IG OAS (BAMLC0A0CM)
Credit quality differential analysis

Interpretation:

Risk Appetite: Tightening spreads indicate risk-on environment
Credit Quality Valuation: HY vs IG spread differentials
Market Stress: Elevated spreads signal economic uncertainty

3. Commodities & Energy 🛢️

Tracks commodity prices and energy market trends.

Indicators:

WTI Crude Oil Spot (DCOILWTICO)
Energy price momentum and trend analysis

Interpretation:

Energy Impulse: Cooling/heating/flat energy trends
Price Momentum: 20-day percentage changes
Economic Activity: Energy prices as leading indicators

4. Labor Market Indicators 👷

Comprehensive labor market analysis.

Indicators:

Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)
Non-Farm Payrolls (PAYEMS)
JOLTS Data: Openings (JTSJOL), Hires (JTSHIR), Separations (JTSTSR), Quits (JTSQUR)

Interpretation:

Labor Tightness: Unemployment levels and market conditions
Employment Trends: Payroll growth analysis
Labor Market Health: Comprehensive labor condition assessment

5. Housing Market Data 🏠

Residential real estate market analysis.

Indicators:

New Home Sales (HSN1F)
Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S)
Case-Shiller Indices: 20-city (CSUSHPISA), 10-city (SPCS10RSA)
FHFA House Price Index (USSTHPI)
Housing Starts (HOUST) & Building Permits (PERMIT)

Interpretation:

Home Price Trends: 3-month appreciation rates
Housing Demand: Sales volume analysis
Market Momentum: Strong/moderate/flat/declining assessments

6. Manufacturing Activity 🏭

Industrial and manufacturing sector analysis.

Indicators:

Industrial Production (INDPRO)
Capacity Utilization (TCU)
Manufacturing IP (IPMAN)
Durable Goods Orders (NEWORDER)
Factory Orders (AMTMTI)

Interpretation:

Manufacturing Capacity: Near-full/normal/underutilized
Production Trends: Industrial activity momentum
Order Flow: Durable goods and factory order analysis

7. Consumer Spending & Confidence 🛒

Household spending and sentiment analysis.

Indicators:

Retail Sales (RRSFS) with month-over-month changes
Consumer Confidence (UMCSENT)
Personal Consumption (PCEC), Income (PI), Saving Rate (PSAVERT)
Real PCE (PCEC96)

Interpretation:

Consumer Sentiment: Optimistic/neutral/pessimistic
Spending Trends: Retail sales momentum
Household Health: Income, consumption, and savings analysis

8. Global Market Indicators 🌍

International markets and currency analysis.

Indicators:

FX Rates: EUR/USD (EURUSD=X), USD/JPY (JPY=X), GBP/USD (GBPUSD=X), etc.
Emerging Market ETFs: VWO, EEM
Cross-currency analysis

Interpretation:

USD Strength: Weakening/steady/strengthening vs major currencies
Global Risk Appetite: EM ETF performance
Currency Trends: Major currency pair analysis

9. Advanced Economic Indicators 📊

Forward-looking and specialized economic data.

Indicators:

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (WALCL)
Leading Economic Index (USSLIND)
CDS Spread Proxies (HYG/LQD ETF spreads)

Interpretation:

Monetary Policy: Fed balance sheet size trends ($ trillions)
Economic Leading Indicators: LEI trend analysis
Credit Risk: CDS spread proxy analysis

Usage

CLI Usage

# Full macro analysis with all categories
copinance analyze macro
 
# Custom analysis with specific categories
copinance analyze macro \
  --include-labor \
  --include-housing \
  --include-manufacturing \
  --include-consumer \
  --include-global \
  --include-advanced \
  --lookback-days 90
 
# Focus on specific economic areas
copinance analyze macro \
  --include-rates \
  --include-credit \
  --include-commodities \
  --no-include-labor \
  --no-include-housing \
  --no-include-manufacturing \
  --no-include-consumer \
  --no-include-global \
  --no-include-advanced

Programmatic Usage

from copinanceos.infrastructure.tools.analysis.market_regime.macro_indicators import (
    create_macro_regime_indicators_tool,
)
from copinanceos.infrastructure.data_providers import FredMacroeconomicProvider, YFinanceMarketProvider
 
# Create providers
fred_provider = FredMacroeconomicProvider(api_key="your-fred-key")
yfinance_provider = YFinanceMarketProvider()
 
# Create tool
macro_tool = create_macro_regime_indicators_tool(fred_provider, yfinance_provider)
 
# Get comprehensive macro analysis
result = await macro_tool.execute(
    lookback_days=90,
    include_rates=True,
    include_credit=True,
    include_commodities=True,
    include_labor=True,
    include_housing=True,
    include_manufacturing=True,
    include_consumer=True,
    include_global=True,
    include_advanced=True,
)
 
# Access results
rates_data = result.data["rates"]
labor_data = result.data["labor"]
housing_data = result.data["housing"]
# ... etc

Library Integration

from copinanceos.infrastructure.analyzers.llm.config import LLMConfig
from copinanceos.infrastructure.containers import get_container
 
# Configure LLM (required for agent workflows)
llm_config = LLMConfig(
    provider="gemini",
    api_key="your-api-key",
    model="gemini-1.5-pro"
)
 
# Create container with macro data providers
container = get_container(
    llm_config=llm_config,
    fred_api_key="your-fred-api-key"  # Optional: enables high-quality macro data
)
 
# Get macro analysis
macro_tool = container.get_macro_regime_indicators_tool()
result = await macro_tool.execute(include_labor=True, include_housing=True)

Data Sources & Quality

Primary Data Sources

FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data): High-quality, official economic data
U.S. Treasury: Official yield curve data
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment and labor market data
Federal Reserve: Monetary policy and balance sheet data

Fallback Sources

yfinance: Free market data for FX rates, ETFs, and proxies
Automatic Switching: Seamless fallback when FRED unavailable

Data Quality Features

Official Sources: Government and central bank data where available
Real-time Updates: Latest available economic releases
Error Handling: Robust null value and missing data handling
Validation: Data integrity checks and error reporting

Interpretation Guide

Economic Signals

Labor Market:

Tight (< 4.0%): Supports rate stability, inflationary pressures
Normal (4.0-5.5%): Balanced labor conditions
Loose (> 5.5%): Potential economic weakness

Yield Curve:

Normal (> 0.5%): Healthy economic expansion
Flattening (0.2-0.5%): Slowing growth expectations
Inverted (< 0%): Recession warning signal

Consumer Sentiment:

Optimistic (> 80): Strong consumer confidence
Neutral (60-80): Moderate economic outlook
Pessimistic (< 60): Weak consumer expectations

Manufacturing Capacity:

Near Full (> 80%): Supply constraints, potential inflation
Normal (75-80%): Balanced capacity utilization
Underutilized (< 75%): Economic slack, potential weakness

Configuration

FRED API Setup (Recommended)

For best results with comprehensive macro indicators:

# Set environment variable
export COPINANCEOS_FRED_API_KEY="your-fred-api-key"
 
# Or add to .env file
echo "COPINANCEOS_FRED_API_KEY=your-fred-api-key" >> .env

FRED API Key Benefits:

Access to 800,000+ economic time series
Official government and central bank data
Higher data quality and historical depth
No rate limits for research use

Get your free API key at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/api_key.html

Without FRED API

The system automatically falls back to yfinance proxies:

Treasury futures for yield curve data
ETF spreads for credit analysis
Energy ETFs for commodity trends
FX rates for global analysis

Current Economic Snapshot

Based on latest available data:

Labor Market: Tight (4.4% unemployment)
Yield Curve: Flattening (10Y-2Y: 0.7%)
Consumer Sentiment: Pessimistic (51.0 index)
Manufacturing: Normal capacity utilization (76.0%)
USD Strength: Steady vs EUR

Data as of most recent economic releases

Integration Examples

FastAPI Web Service

from fastapi import FastAPI
from copinanceos.infrastructure.tools.analysis.market_regime.macro_indicators import (
    create_macro_regime_indicators_tool,
)
 
app = FastAPI()
 
@app.get("/api/macro/{category}")
async def get_macro_data(category: str):
    # Return specific macro category data
    result = await macro_tool.execute(**{f"include_{category}": True})
    return result.data.get(category, {})

Investment Research Workflow

# Multi-step investment analysis
async def comprehensive_research(symbol: str):
    # 1. Get individual stock analysis
    stock_analysis = await stock_tool.execute(symbol=symbol)
    
    # 2. Get macro economic context
    macro_analysis = await macro_tool.execute(
        include_rates=True,
        include_credit=True,
        include_labor=True,
        include_consumer=True
    )
    
    # 3. Combine for investment recommendation
    return generate_recommendation(stock_analysis, macro_analysis)

Best Practices

Use FRED API: Configure FRED API key for highest quality data
Category Selection: Enable only needed categories for faster execution
Lookback Period: Use 90-252 days for meaningful trend analysis
Interpretation: Consider all categories together for comprehensive view
Regular Monitoring: Economic conditions change frequently
Data Validation: Check available and error fields for data quality

Troubleshooting

Common Issues

“No data points” errors:

Check FRED API key configuration
Verify date ranges (some series have limited history)
Series may be discontinued

High latency:

Reduce lookback period
Disable unused categories
Use cached results when possible

Missing interpretations:

Check if series have sufficient data points
Some interpretations require 20+ data points

Data Availability

Monthly vs Daily Data:

Labor/housing/consumer: Monthly releases
Rates/commodities: Daily updates
Global: Daily FX, weekly/monthly EM data

Release Schedules:

Employment data: First Friday of month
CPI/PCE: Mid-month
FOMC meetings: 8 times per year
Treasury auctions: Weekly

Comprehensive Macro Economic Indicators

Overview

Key Features

Economic Categories

1. Interest Rates & Yield Curve 📈

2. Credit Spreads & Risk Premiums 💰

3. Commodities & Energy 🛢️

4. Labor Market Indicators 👷

5. Housing Market Data 🏠

6. Manufacturing Activity 🏭

7. Consumer Spending & Confidence 🛒

8. Global Market Indicators 🌍

9. Advanced Economic Indicators 📊

Usage

CLI Usage

Programmatic Usage

Library Integration

Data Sources & Quality

Primary Data Sources

Fallback Sources

Data Quality Features

Interpretation Guide

Economic Signals

Configuration

FRED API Setup (Recommended)

Without FRED API

Current Economic Snapshot

Integration Examples

FastAPI Web Service

Investment Research Workflow

Best Practices

Troubleshooting

Common Issues

Data Availability

See Also